Australia aiming for record growth run

Annual economic growth is expected to remain comfortably above three per cent, completing 25 years of uninterrupted expansion.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens

The Reserve Bank is expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at Glenn Stevens' final board meeting. (AAP)

Australia looks set to complete a record 25th year of uninterrupted economic growth.

Economists firmed up their forecasts for growth in the 2015/16 financial year before Wednesday's national accounts, predicting an annual rate comfortably above three per cent.

"Australia is zeroing in on the Netherlands for the gold medal of the longest economic expansion in the modern era," Commonwealth Securities chief economist Craig James said.

The Dutch hold the global record of 26-and-a-half years.

Wednesday's result will come despite growth halving in the June quarter to around 0.5 per cent after the bumper 1.1 per cent result in the first three months of the year.

This will be partly the result of new figures showing exports detracting 0.2 percentage points from GDP in the June quarter, in stark contrast to the one per cent rise in the previous quarter.

Such an annual outcome would be stronger than the 2.5 per cent Treasurer Scott Morrison forecast in his May 3 budget, but in line with the Reserve Bank's 3.25 per cent estimate made in August.

However, economists doubt it will have an impact on interest rates with the central bank's focus remaining on a benign inflation outlook

Chairing his final Reserve Bank board meeting on Tuesday, retiring governor Glenn Stevens left the official cash rate at a record low 1.5 per cent, as was widely expected.

Mr Stevens said taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy in May and August, the board judged holding policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the 2-3 per cent inflation target over time.

The latest Dun & Bradstreet business expectations survey found respondents optimistic about the outlook for the rest of the year for sales, employment, selling prices and profits.

""The positive tone in business expectations since the election has been sustained and the results point to a period of solid economic expansion right through to the end of 2016," D&B economic adviser Stephen Koukoulas said.

Consumers were not so positive, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index dropping a further 3.5 per cent in the past week and over six per cent in the past fortnight.

This disappointing result takes confidence to its lowest level in three months after touching a three-year high a few weeks ago.

"The recent volatility in consumer confidence has been driven by large swings in views about the economic outlook," ANZ senior economist Jo Masters said.


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Source: AAP


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