RBA sits back and waits

The RBA has confirmed it expects the monetary stimulus it's applied will be enough to lift economic growth, although unemployment has further to rise.

On hold. On the fence. On the sideline. On its hands.

Call it what you like, the fact is that the Reserve Bank of Australia is not planning to change its monetary policy setting for a while.

With the cash rate at 2.5 per cent, a half-century low, policy is "appropriately configured", not just to boost the economy but also to hit the two-to-three per cent target for the trend in annual consumer price rises.

"On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates," the RBA said in a statement issued after its monthly board meeting.

That's not to say the economy is exactly where the RBA wants it.

It's a safe bet that the central bank would like to see the Australian dollar a bit lower.

The RBA doesn't pass judgment on the exchange rate on a whim.

It's still "jawboning" the currency with a view to reducing the market's enthusiasm for it and dragging it lower.

"The decline in the exchange rate seen to date will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, though the exchange rate remains high by historical standards," the RBA said.

Not only is the Aussie dollar a tad high, but the unemployment rate still has some way to go before it peaks, the RBA said.

And the mining investment boom has some way to fall, other business sectors are hardly rushing to fill the void.

Nor is the public sector amid ongoing restraint in government spending.

So, there are some negatives which suggest another rate cut can't be ruled out.

But there are enough positives - the unmistakable pickup in the housing sector stands out, and then there's the delayed impact earlier rate cuts and exchange rate fall - for the RBA to believe that another cut will not be needed.

And there will be no quick answers.

So for now, possibly for another six months or more, the RBA will be in wait-and-see mode as it sits back, bides its time, checks the lie of the land and sees which way the wind blows.


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Source: AAP


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