Signs of a more positive outlook

Business and consumer surveys suggest last week's unexpectedly strong growth figures may not be a one-off.

Suddenly Australia appears to have a spring back in its step.

Consumer confidence has surged, business conditions are more upbeat and iron ore prices have bounced, all suggesting last week's unexpectedly strong growth figures may be more than just a one-off result.

While deputy Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe doubts the economy is on the cusp of returning to growth rates seen before the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, he says it appears to have got over the end of the resources boom.

"The economy is successfully rebalancing following the mining investment boom," he told a conference in Adelaide on Tuesday.

But that doesn't mean the central bank has ruled out another interest rate cut just yet.

Dr Lowe reiterated the RBA board's view the low inflation outlook provides scope for easier monetary policy should that be needed for supporting growth.

"An important factor will be whether the growth in aggregate demand continues to be sufficient to accommodate the growth in our labour force," he told the Urban Development Institute of Australia's national congress.

But the main risk to a more rosier outlook lay in the international sphere where there were a lot of cross-currents the RBA was watching carefully.

Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens is concerned that uncertainty in the global economy could hit retailers.

"While the solid gains (in retail sales) over 2015 were an achievement, early 2016 is producing a turbulent global backdrop, posing challenges for the sector this year," he said in his latest retail forecasts report.

However, consumer confidence - a key pointer for future spending - surged 3.1 per cent in the past week.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan believes perceptions about the outlook would have been bolstered by last week's figures showing an annual three per cent growth rate and gains in both the Australian dollar and share markets.

National Australia Bank's business survey also showed a notable improvement in conditions.

"The Australian economy appears to be performing better than many had expected, and this month's business survey gives no signs that this is wavering," NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.

There was also good news for the government as the iron ore price jumped nearly 20 per cent.

"A higher price is better for Australian iron ore producers which ultimately flows through into better revenues," Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told reporters in Adelaide.


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Source: AAP


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